Vice President Harris’s first major decision as the putative presidential nominee will be her running mate. She will need to balance a variety of considerations — personal compatibility, capacity to step into the presidency, geographic and ideological balance (or, conversely, ideological reinforcement, as Bill Clinton did in picking another moderate Southerner, Al Gore), ability to deliver a key state, media and campaign skills, and, finally, a background to complement the top of the ticket. While many names have been bandied about, four seem to be the most likely to make her short list.
As a preliminary matter, I suspect she is unlikely to pick a lesser-known House member or another member of the Biden administration, such as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. She likely wants to convey both that the Democratic ticket is in every way more qualified than the GOP duo and that she will pick her own administration, not simply inherit President Biden’s.
However, the assumption that she should only consider White, male governors from states not on the coasts seems misplaced. Simply because two women have never run does not mean Harris necessarily must pick a White man. (After all, for most of our history two White men ran on both major party tickets.) Certainly, Democrats do not want to give up on male voters (a majority of whom vote Republican), who might like to see one man on the ticket. But a female candidate who checks many of the other boxes and who has herself won handily among both male and female voters should not be excluded.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, for example, won 48 percent of male voters in her reelection race. She represents a critical swing state and brings tested executive experience. As the subject of a thwarted kidnapping and murder plot, she can be a powerful voice to deplore the rise of political violence and extremism. She has plenty of moxie, shines in interviews and, at 52 years old, emphasizes the relative youth of the ticket. Still, there will be many voices telling Harris that Whitmer is too risky and will only exacerbate Democrats’ problem with male voters.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro will certainly also be on Harris’s short list. He comes from arguably the most important swing state, does offer gender balance and is well versed in emergency management, having handled the I-95 collapse and then the horrible assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump. Shapiro comes across as unflappable on TV. He trounced his Republican opponent in a purple state by double digits in 2022. Shapiro appears to be the best-known and favorite option among Democrats, but one wonders if the party wants to give up the governorship of such a critical state. Some voices have also questioned putting a Jewish politician on the list — as if that might represent “too much diversity.” Frankly, those uncomfortable with diversity likely won’t be voting for Harris anyway. And, in any event, religion is not the barrier for most voters it was decades ago. (Biden’s Catholicism was a nonissue in 2020.) Moreover, Shapiro, a vocal supporter of Israel, is the perfect counter to Trump’s antisemitic claim that American Jews are crazy or bad Jews if they vote for Democrats.
If Harris is looking for more geographic diversity, Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina fits the bill. At the least, he might compel Republicans to spend money to contest his state. He’s seen as a moderate, has a 20-year friendship with Harris going back to their days as attorneys general of their states and has shown that Democrats, even in a conservative state, can stand up to culture war bullies. (Repealing the “bathroom bill,” Cooper argued, “For over a year now, House Bill 2 has been a dark cloud hanging over our great state. It has stained our reputation, it has discriminated against our people, and it has caused great economic harm in many of our communities.”) However, at 67 he does not exactly reinforce the message of “handing the baton to the next generation.”
Finally, buzz has increased around Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). A veteran Navy pilot and astronaut, he has been seen as a moderate on immigration. He has strong support among Hispanic voters (carrying 58 percent in 2022), and could put Arizona back in play. Along with his wife, Gabby Giffords, the victim of a near-fatal shooting, he has become an unstinting advocate for gun safety. Like Harris, he will be 60 at the time of the election, reinforcing the perception that these are mature, experienced public servants but not geriatric.
If Harris wants to play it safe, she might be more inclined to go with Shapiro. If she wants to rebuild the Obama coalition, reinforcing her party’s standing with Hispanic voters and recapturing men who might be impressed with his military career, she might go with Kelly. Truth be told, any of these would be a capable No. 2 for her. And any of them would match up well against the awkward, extremist and unaccomplished Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio).
As you might have noticed, the Democrats have an exceptionally deep bench. Another benefit of Harris’s ascension to the top of the ticket: A new Democratic star can emerge onto the national stage.
News weblink: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/25/kamala-harris-vice-president-choice-shapiro-kelly/